Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

January Soybeans closed ¼ cent lower ($9.28 ½), March ¼ cent lower ($9.40 ½) & July ½ cent lower ($9.65 ½)

January Soybean Meal closed $0.6 higher ($302.9), March $1.0 higher ($307.4) & July $1.4 higher ($313.6)

January Soybean Oil closed 39 pts lower ($33.43), March 38 pts lower ($33.72) & July 35 pts lower ($34.27)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 950 K – 1.400 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Flat price soybeans go into a minor consolidation mode following the recent 60 cent rally over the past 10 days. This is not to be unexpected as many felt a modest degree of “short-term” was developing. Soybean oil goes into a correction phase following its near 400 pt. rally in the same time frame. Soybean meal gets some left-handed support from the correction in bean oil as it has been the weak sister of the complex. Tomorrow is export sales day so the trade will be looking for signs on continued Chinese soybean buying either in the sales report or from the USDA in its daily reporting system.

The interior soybean basis is steady on a worst-case scenario with many locations still improving. The Gulf basis for soybeans remains at or near its strongest level to date. Soybean spreads within the current crop year were mostly steady while the old crop eased vs. the new crop in lieu of recent gains. The interior meal basis is mostly steady but I couldn’t help seeing some locations moving to basis March featuring improvements. The Gulf basis for meal has not seen any changes over the past number of days. Despite the flat price of meal inching higher nearby spreads featured some minor easing. Meal traders continue to expect to see some new business develop given Argentina’s hike in its export duties.

Back in mid-November March soybeans created a shelf of resistance against the $9.40 level. I think we’ll have to see better evidence of new Chinese buying to eclipse that level. The best-looking near-term support is the $9.30 level followed by the Sunday night higher gap that would fill in the mid-low $9.20’s. Soybean oil shows room to correct further; at least down to the $33.00 level. After that we will look at $32.50 for support as this level represents previous highs earlier in the year. Despite the March soybean meal chart looking like the weak sister of the complex it has registered an interim double bottom that points to a challenge of the $312.0-$315.0 level.

Daily Support & Resistance for Dec 19th

March Soybeans: $9.30 – $9.47

March Soybean Meal: $303.5 – $311.5

March Soybean Oil: $33.20 – $34.15

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