Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

January Soybeans closed 5 ¾ cents lower ($9.29 ¼), March 3 ¾ cents lower ($9.42 ¼) & July 3 ¾ cents lower ($9.67 ¼)

January Soybean Meal closed $0.3 higher ($299.0), March $0.3 higher ($303.8) & July $0.3 higher ($312.4)

January Soybean Oil closed 43 pts lower ($33.64), March 40 pts lower ($33.95) & July 38 pts lower ($34.62)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.136 M T. vs. 500 K – 1.100 M T. expected

The soybean market appears to be stuck for now as the trade is hoping for details from the scheduled signing of the US/China trade accord scheduled for the 15th (or shortly thereafter). Opinions are forming that details will be lacking once the accord is signed. The idea is that China won’t be backed into a corner committing they are going to buy how much of this and how much of that. The meal market gets a minor bid from the liquidating soybean oil market. I’m not sure the meal market can go anywhere as long as the meal market in China is spiraling lower. The weather in SA remains conducive to a large crop. In recent days the dry conditions in RGDS have been a bit of a concern but that was waylaid today due to weekend rains that developed.

The interior soybean basis continues to show a firm undertone despite a couple of river locations showing some easing. The Gulf basis for soybeans at its midday posting showed a slightly easier bid vs. a slightly higher offer. Soybean spreads ran mostly steady within the current crop year while old crop gains on the new crop. Offers to sell cash soybean meal in the US interior firmed ever so slightly while the Gulf basis stays slack looking. Soybean meal spreads ran flat out to July and then gained fractionally as one went further out.

The technical look has the soybean market in a holding pattern. I can’t imagine the bulls will want to see a close below Friday’s lows. For now the bean oil market looks like it has topped out for now. Some will argue its just a correction. Since the bean oil market made its lows back in mid-May corrections have lasted 2 – 4 weeks. Right now we’re only at week one.  Soybean meal is also in a holding pattern but unlike soybeans that are holding near recent highs soybean meal is holding near recent lows. Just my opinion; if the trade doesn’t get details once the trade accord is signed I have to think we will move lower.

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 14th   

March Soybeans: $9.34 (?) – $9.50

March Soybean Meal: $300.0 – $307.0

March Soybean Oil: $34.50 – $34.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.