Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 2 cents higher ($8.81), July 3 cents higher ($8.92) & Nov 2 ½ cents higher ($9.13)

March Soybean Meal closed $4.8 higher ($291.3), July $4.5 higher ($303.8) & Dec $4.3 higher ($311.1)

March Soybean Oil closed 16 pts lower ($29.07), July 18 pts lower ($29.83) & Dec 25 pts lower ($30.61)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 600-900 K T. old crop expected – no new crop expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 150-350 K T. old crop expected – no new crop expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 8-45 K T. old crop expected – no new crop expected

Mid-morning Wednesday the Argentine government announced it was holding up on registering any new export licenses. This is considered to be a precursor to them raising the export duty on soybeans and soybean products another 3% to 33%. This has been widely anticipated and why the soybean market was unable to sustain the rally. The soybean meal market did a much better job of sustaining its mid-morning rally as this goes along with the current improvement in the US meal export market. Soybean oil tried to rally with this news but was unable to get past unchanged on the day. A weak palm oil market continues to weigh on soybean oil. The Argentine producer is expected to revolt against the higher export taxes by holding back on his soybean sales. It will be interesting to see if his actions garner the US any new business.

The interior cash soybean market, like cash corn, continues to show a firm undertone. The Gulf for soybeans runs mostly unchanged with postings we have seen for the past week. The US soybean producer remains a reluctant seller as he waits and hopes for some Chinese business to develop. Supposedly the Chinese government will begin to entertain tariff waivers beginning next week. Whether this gains the US any business remains to be seen. Without tariffs Brazil is still a cheaper origin. The nearby soybean spread was under the gun as we approach 1st Notice Day on Friday. Currently there are 131 soybean contracts registered for delivery. Be aware that can change as commercials have until 5:00 PM Thursday to either add or subtract that amount. May forward soybean spreads, however, showed a firm bias. Interior offers to sell cash soybean meal are firming once again. The Gulf bid for meal went from option price March to $1 over the May.

The soybean chart appears to be flagging higher from the lows we saw on Monday, not a real strong looking picture. Soybean meal has a stronger looking picture but barely challenged the stiff looking resistance beginning just above the $300.0 level (May). Soybean oil continues to struggle to find any friends.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/27

May Soybeans – $8.82 – $8.98

May Soy Meal – $294.0 – $301.0

May Soy Oil – $29.00 – $29.90

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