Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 5 ¾ cents higher ($8.98 ¾), July 1 ¾ cents higher ($9.15 ¼) & Nov 1 ¾ cents lower ($9.17 ½)

March Soybean Meal closed $1.4 higher ($305.2), July $1.3 lower ($312.8) & Dec $2.7 lower ($314.8)

March Soybean Oil closed 60 pts higher ($29.44), July 55 pts higher ($30.05) & Dec 45 pts higher ($30.75)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 500 k – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 225-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

The Argentine government has finally confirmed what it is doing with export duties on soybeans and products; they will increase duties by 3% to 33% on soybeans and products. This has the trade thinking better export opportunities for the US in soybeans and soybean products. We have yet to see any evidence of new Chinese buying despite them opening the window for tariff waivers for US soybeans. Overnight it was reported that China may have bought nearly 1.0 M T. of soybeans out of Brazil on Tuesday. Soybean oil finally got a noticeable flat price boost from a palm oil market that may be finally getting out of its recent hole.

Cash markets throughout the soybean complex continue to show strength. I’m not sure this is a result of improved demand for soybeans but more so the inability to originate soybeans out of the interior. Yes, soybean meal demand has improved both domestically and for export. Bull spreads were working throughout the complex on Tuesday.

The difficulty to originate cash soybeans in the US has bull spreads leading the strength in the flat price soybeans and working to keep the recent rally alive in soybean meal. I’m not sure the idea of better business because of what’s happening in Argentina (increasing export duties) is enough to keep the soybean market alive especially without Chinese buying. $9.20 could prove to be a very pivotal level for July soybeans as that is the best price we’ve seen since late January. July soybean meal has a similar pivotal level at $316.0. The recent rally in July soybean oil sees its first test of resistance at the $30.50 level followed by $31.00.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/05

July Soybeans – $9.05 – $9.21 (?)

July Soy Meal – $308.0 – $316.0 (?)

July Soy Oil – $29.50 – $30.50

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