Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 2 ½ cents higher ($8.24 ¼), July ½ cent higher ($8.31) & Nov 2 cents lower ($8.42 ¾)

May Soybean Meal closed $2.0 higher ($298.3), July $1.0 lower ($296.5) & Dec $3.5 lower ($299.9)

May Soybean Oil closed 25 pts higher ($25.24), July 25 pts higher ($25.59) & Dec 22 pts higher ($26.47)

The soybean complex stabilizes on Tuesday led by bull spreads in soybeans and soybean meal. The soybean oil market also saw a slight pop from a possibly lockdown in Malaysian palm industry. I am also hearing of some shipping problems developing in Argentina due to virus related issues. Equities trading on the plus side for the majority of the day also helped. China is still buying Brazilian origin.

Most of the interior soybean basis locations that I track are running unchanged. I do show one Illinois river locations running a bit easier. The gulf basis for soybeans firms after the past couple of days’ easing. The interior meal basis (offers) are firming. Soybean movement in the interior has been mostly shutdown due to the recent sharp break in the flat price. Both soybean and soybean meal spreads were noticeably firmer from the slow movement as well as the idea of better demand for US meal.

So here we have one day of stabilization following a rather sharp dramatic break. Does this mean we’re bottoming? I’m hesitant to say one day makes a bottom given the circumstances of the break. The idea of bull spreading does suggest developing demand but it needs to follow through. Some of the better looking historic support for July soybeans is closer to the $8.00 level and for November soybeans closer to the $8.15 level. Watch your meal market as this market is your historic leader of the complex. For what it is worth – the sharp rally in the US Dollar just gets us further away from any significant Chinese business. For that matter it gets us further away from any significant business.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/18

July Soybeans – $8.20 – $8.47

July Soy Meal – $293.0 – $301.0

July Soy Oil – $25.00 – $26.10

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