Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 17 ¾ cents higher ($8.43 ¼), July 15 ¼ cents higher ($8.48) & Nov 6 ½ cents higher ($8.48 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $10.8 higher ($314.8), July $5.4 higher ($306.0) & Dec $1.6 lower ($299.7)

May Soybean Oil closed 44 pts higher ($25.48), July 44 pts higher ($25.81) & Dec 41 pts higher ($26.70)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 631.6 K T. old crop vs. 400 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 69.6 K T. new crop vs. 60-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 129.0 K T. old crop vs. 150-400 K T. expected – 2.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 18.9 K T. old crop vs. 5-35 K T. expected – 2.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Nearby soybeans and soybean meal rally sharply from ideas that exports out of SA may become disrupted due to virus concerns. There is talk that China may have bought some US soybean cargos out of the PNW as this location can ship quicker vs. Brazil given their large line-up. Soybean oil goes along for the for pretty much the same rationale that rallied the bean and meal markets. Soybean meal has had the sharpest rally as crushers remain hard pressed for soybean ownership due to the lack of cash movement. Weekly export sales this AM were deemed as a non-event; almost disappointing. Equities trying to stabilize today was also helpful.

The interior soybean basis runs steady to better on the day. The Gulf basis remains firm from not only slow movement but from competition with the crusher. Soybean spreads were strong within the crop year and even stronger vs. the new crop. Offers to sell cash meal are screaming higher in the interior as well as at the Gulf. Meal spreads, led by the nearby May contract, ran gang busters higher today. When was the last time one saw May meal gain $5.00 on the July? The old crop/new crop meal spreads were also sharply higher as July gains $7.00 on the Dec.

Who would have thought May meal would rally $24.00 in the past 3 days? Granted we now have some fundamental basis for the rally but I have to think the spec trade got caught being too short. The sharp rally in that we saw today is also attributed to the spec trade being just too short. Today’s rally does show room for some short term backing and filling but if the fundamental rationale that rallied us today is still with us in the days ahead corrections will be short lived.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/20

July Soybeans – $8.40 – $8.63

July Soy Meal – $301.0 – $311.0

July Soy Oil – $25.45 – $26.60

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.