Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 2 ¾ cents higher ($8.86 ¾), July 2 cents higher ($8.87 ½) & Nov 2 ½ cents higher ($8.75)

May Soybean Meal closed $1.5 lower ($332.1), July $0.6 higher ($324.6) & Dec $1.2 lower ($310.1)

May Soybean Oil closed 41 pts higher ($26.55), July 44 pts higher ($26.84) & Dec 46 pts higher ($27.68)

Soybeans and soybean meal took a slight breather on Tuesday from the recent sharp rally. I did not see any reason in particular for the breather other than shades of a short term overbought. Brazil does report that recent port congestion is being cleared slowly but surely. Overall the flat price in both soybeans and soybean meal put in admirable performance given where we closed vs. the day’s lows. Soybean oil registers its best price vs. the past 5 days as talk that palm plantations are being shut down; not the mills just the plantations that supply the mills.

Interior cash soybean prices (basis) continues to show a steady to firm tone. Processors continue with the best basis. Board crush margins continue to be strong. The May board crush eased while the July firmed. The gulf for soybeans continues with its firming trend. Soybean spreads were firm within the old crop and mixed as we went forward into the new crop. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior ran mixed but still with a firm undertone. The gulf for meal has offers moving higher. The nearby meal spreads involving the May contract eased while the meal spreads with July leading were firm.

As I mentioned earlier the complex put in a pretty decent performance given where we closed vs. the day’s lows. That would suggest we are still looking at higher prices in the near term. July soybeans continue to target the mid-high $8.90’s. July meal is bumping up against closing trendline resistance. If July meal can take out the current level (mid $320’s) with any conviction the mid-low $330’s would be the next target. July soybean oil is registering an interim buy signal with today’s close. Charts suggest it would not take much to trade towards the $28.00 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/25

July Soybeans – $8.75 – $8.94 ($8.98)

July Soy Meal – $318.0.0 – $327.5 (?)

July Soy Oil – $26.30 – $27.30

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.