Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 5 ¼ cents lower ($8.81 ½), July 2 ¾ cents lower ($8.84 ¾) & Nov 2 ½ cents higher ($8.77 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $10.4 lower ($321.7), July $6.3 lower ($318.3) & Dec $0.8 higher ($310.1)

May Soybean Oil closed 9 pts higher ($26.64), July 15 pts higher ($26.99) & Dec 16 pts higher ($27.84)

USDA announces 20.0 K T. of old crop soybean oil sold to S. Korea

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

The soybean complex saw a lot of “push-pull” today involving SA and an increase in cash selling here in the US. In Argentina they talk about slow farmer selling as well as travel restrictions. In Brazil the talk yesterday was towns shutting down and unable to ship grain. Today those restrictions were lifted. In Russia there is talk of shutting down exports of sunseed seeds. Stability in the US energy sector lends support to soybean oil as does the unwinding of long meal/short bean oil spreads. As futures neared the $9.00 level there was a bit of an increase in cash selling. As to the sharp break in soybean meal – I’m attributing a good portion of it the increase in volatility; too many specs piled in too fast.

The interior soybean basis from the processor continues to firm. Unfortunately the Board crush got blasted today with the break in meal. The May Board crush lost nearly 17 cents while the July lost nearly 10 cents. River basis locations are mixed reflecting where soybeans are needs vs. where they are not needed. The gulf continues to edge higher at the midday posting. I have to think we saw some soybeans move today when the may and July contracts challenged the $9.00 level. Soybean spreads were definitely under the gun by the close. Offers to sell cash meal continue to look strong from slow movement. I only saw on interior location, Frankfort, IN, lower there offers. Gulf offers run unchanged while maintaining recent gains. Despite what looks like a firm cash market soybean meal spreads got whacked really hard mostly from spec selling.

Over the past few days I’ve been eyeballing the $326.5 level in July soybean meal as it represented closing trendline resistance. The inability to eclipse that level brought out the profit taking today. Prices are now in line to test the suspected support down towards $310.0. We have also been eyeballing the $8.97-$8.98 gap in July soybeans. The gap got filled in the night session and prices turned tail. Prices are now in line to test the recently established support at $8.75 if not closer to $8.65-$8.60. Soybean oil edges higher following the suggested buy signal from Wednesday. Soybean oil’s technical support will come from inter-market spreading if soybeans and soybean meal continue to correct.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/26

July Soybeans – $8.74 – $8.94

July Soy Meal – $312.0.0 – $322.5

July Soy Oil – $26.50 – $27.45

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.