Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just MY Opinion

May Soybeans closed ¾ cent higher ($8.82 ¼), July 1 ¼ cents higher ($8.86 ½) & Nov 2 ¼ cents lower ($8.74 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $2.4 higher ($325.5), July $1.2 higher ($320.9) & Dec $0.9 lower ($309.0)

May Soybean Oil closed 2 pts higher ($26.87), July 1 pt higher ($27.23) & Dec 1 pt higher ($28.08)

USDA announces 285.0 K T. new crop soybeans sold to Mexico

Soybean Export Inspections – 413.9 K T. vs. 400-700 K T. expected (587.4 K T. last week)

Higher prices for soybean meal and soybeans in China push US prices higher in the early going while fears of bearish data from the USDA tomorrow pressure prices midday. China is worried that virus issues will slow shipments out of SA. Soybean oil gets an early boost from higher palm oil as it appears more and more palm plantations are shutting down due to virus issues. As the day went on bean oil prices were beat back down due to the continued sinking energy prices in this country.

The USDA will release Prospective Soybean Plantings tomorrow. The average guess is 84.865 million acres. The expected number for soybean Quarterly Stocks is 2.241 billion bu.

Not much change is being noted with the interior soybean basis today. Levels are maintaining last week’s easing. The midday posting at the Gulf eases ever so slightly from last week’s rally. Soybean spreads showed a bullish bias all the way out to May 2021. Offers to sell cash soybean meal remain firm in both the interior and for export. Meal spreads were firm all the way out to Dec 2021.

July soybeans are showing an interim double top against the mid-high $8.90’s. A bearish report from the USDA could easily break prices back down the $8.60 level if not lower. The recent flip-flopping in July meal can viewed as an interim top or the pause that refreshes before we see higher prices. Given the problems in Argentina, the world’s number one soybean meal exporter, my guess would be higher even if the market initially breaks. Soybean oil charts still read higher but I would start becoming a bit suspect once $28.00 is attained (July),

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/31

July Soybeans – $8.75 – $8.90

July Soy Meal – $314.0 – $327.0 (?)

July Soy Oil – $26.50 – $28.00

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