Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 3 ¾ cents higher ($8.86), July 3 cents higher ($8.89 ½) & Nov 3 cents higher ($8.77 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $4.0 lower ($321.5), July $2.0 lower ($318.9) & Dec $0.6 lower ($308.4)

May Soybean Oil closed 14 pts higher ($27.01), July 13 pts higher ($27.36) & Dec 9 pts higher ($28.17)

USDA Soybean Quarterly Stocks – 2.253 billion bu. vs. 2.241 expected vs. 2.727 year ago

USDA Prospective Soybean Plantings – 83.510 million acres vs. 84.865 expected vs. 76.100 year ago

Old crop soybeans – in my opinion the quarterly soybean stocks figure was pretty much a non-event as it came in just 12 million bu. above expectations. The market was able to catch a bid as it went back to what has been supporting the market in recent days, the unknown around timely shipments out of SA due to the ongoing virus issues.

New crop soybeans – the acreage figure from the USDA was deemed friendly as it came in 1.355 million acres below trade estimates. Just how enthused the trade gets over this number remains to be seen.

Not much happens with the interior soybean basis vs. where it has been for the past few days. The Gulf basis continues to see a firm tone mostly from slow movement. Soybean spreads had a bullish bias upfront; mixed to firm going forward. The interior meal basis runs unchanged while the export basis appears noticeably stronger. Despite this meal spreads were under pressure. For what it is worth nearby Board crush margins appear to be topping out.

July soybeans continue to consolidate near their recent upper end. The $9.00 level still appears to be resistance. July meal also continues in a consolidation phase near its recent upper end. The flip-flopping is creating some technical concern that the market may be topping out. The grind higher in July soybean oil continues. I’m still viewing $28.00 as initial resistance.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/01

July Soybeans – $8.80 – $8.98

July Soy Meal – $314.0 – $326.0

July Soy Oil – $27.00 – $28.00

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