Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 4 ¼ cents higher ($8.30 ¾), July 4 ½ cents higher ($8.40 ¾) & Nov 2 ¼ cents higher ($8.48)

May Soybean Meal closed $3.5 higher ($289.1), July $3.7 higher ($294.5) & Dec $2.8 higher ($298.6)

May Soybean Oil closed 63 pts lower ($25.35), July 61 pts lower ($25.76) & Dec 55 pts lower ($26.65)

The soybean complex was part of the Tuesday morning wipeout before recovering as the day went on. At one point old crop soybeans were down nearly 18 cents, new crop down 15 cents. Soybean meal was down $5.0 or so while bean oil took it the hardest as it was down 120 pts. Recovery was led by the meal market. Meal finished $8.00 off of its lows, soybeans 22 cents off of its lows and bean oil nearly 60 pts off of its lows. The meal led recovery was about a slowing of the crush while soybean oil stayed lower on the day from a lack of bio-diesel demand and food use demand.

The interior soybean basis sees mostly steady levels with little to no changes being noted. Granted soybean movement has been minimal that is being matched by demand. The gulf basis appears to be a touch easier at is midday posting. Soybean spreads ran fractionally mixed upfront followed by a slight bullish bias out to January. I couldn’t help but notice the Jan to March ’21 spread lose 3 ½ cents on the day and the March ’21 contracts noticeably stronger. Offers to sell cash soybean meal run unchanged in both the interior and the for export. Meal spreads showed a slight bullish bias out to Dec ’20 and then showed a bearish bias as we move into 2021.

Both soybeans and soybean meal registered upside reversals that involved contract lows. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some minor backing and filling of today’s rally in the near term but from a technical standpoint many will want to say the worst is over at least for now. Soybean oil should try to honor its contract low that was established in mid-March. July bean oil came within 16 pts of that low in the early morning rout.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/22

July Soybeans – $8.30 – $8.48

July Soy Meal – $290.0 – $296.5

July Soy Oil – $25.40 – $26.40

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.