Jan Soybeans closed 16 cents lower ($8.95 ½), March 17 ¼ cents lower ($9.06 ¾) & July 16 ¾ cents lower ($9.32 ¼)
Jan Soybean Meal closed $6.4 lower ($312.6), March $6.6 lower ($316.8) & July $5.9 lower ($324.3)
Jan Soybean Oil closed 38 pts lower ($27.94), March 41 pts lower ($28.19) & July 38 pts lower ($28.78)
CONAB suggests Brazil soybean crop at 118.8 M T. vs. previous estimate of 120.066 M T.
In recent days we’ve been hearing all sorts of reductions to the Brazilian soybean crop. The CONAB number was nowhere near as dire as some had been touting. Earlier this week a well-respected Brazilian consulting agency was rumored to have put the Brazilian crop size at 109.0 M T. Today, in print, their number was 117.6 M T. I will admit that if the currently dry areas of Brazil don’t get some relief soon crop sizes will continue to edge lower. Despite statements from US trade representatives back from their China meeting suggesting China’s pledge to purchase substantial amounts of US agriculture cash traders in know have been silent about any new purchases. The Chinese statement following this meeting mentioned nothing specifically in regards to US agricultural purchases. Part of the bottom line to today’s trade is that the recent bulls have gotten tired of waiting/wishing and hoping for additional Chinese purchases.
Similar to interior cash corn markets the interior cash soybean markets are running steady to lower. The Gulf for soybeans continues to edge lower as well. Soybean spreads, March forward, reflected the bearish looking cash markets. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to look for buyers as they edge lower as well. Needless to say meal spreads had a bearish bias.
Despite today’s ugly looking performance in the soybean complex we are still a trading range affair. Earlier this week we came close to testing the trading range highs and we have failed to follow through. I can’t help but noticing that recently strong looking daily momentum indicators are now on the verge of rolling over. So what’s out there to keep the US soy complex alive; additional Chinese soy purchases (which I don’t believe are coming anytime soon) and/or a continued shrinking Brazilian soy crop.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/11
Mch Soybean Meal: $314.0 ($311.0) – 321.0
Mch Soybeans: $9.00 ($8.95) – $9.15
Mch Soybean Oil: $27.80 – $28.55
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.