March Soybeans closed ¼ cent lower ($9.03 ½), July unchanged ($9.30 ½) & Nov ½ cent higher ($9.48 ¾)
March Soybean Meal closed $1.8 higher ($305.0), July $2.0 higher ($313.1) & Dec $1.7 higher ($319.7)
March Soybean Oil closed 29 pts lower ($29.80), July 29 pts lower ($30.45) & Dec 28 pts lower ($31.07)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 500 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 50-150 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-24 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
It was a choppy, choppy two-sided trade for the soybean market on Wednesday. May soybeans registered an inside day of Tuesday. The trade appears to be trying to hang on to the idea that last week’s announcement that China has committed to buying another 10.0 M T. of soybeans will become a reality sooner vs. later. For what it is worth March and April is jumping higher at the Gulf. The other side of that coin is the USTR saying China is not going to buy their way into a trade deal. The meal market continues to hang tough but unable to really distance itself from this week’s new lows. The only positive is that the new lows seen earlier this week did not attract a new round of selling. Bean oil continues to liquidate taking its cue from a failing palm oil and canola market.
Interior soybean processors appear to be standing “pat” with their basis. Interior river bids appear to be mixed. I’m told transportation problems still exists on the riverways. As mentioned earlier the Gulf is jumping higher. How much of that is due to slow product arrival vs. some new business remains to be seen. Soybean spreads saw fractional easing out to the new crop. Offers to sell cash meal, domestic and export, are unchanged but depressed looking. Soybean deliveries are expected to be in the 400-800 range. Coming into today there was 1113 registered for delivery. Soybean meal deliveries are expected to none to 400. Coming into today there was 395 registrations.
The price action in the soybean and soybean meal markets suggests the trade is playing a waiting game. You know what they are waiting for. Its those expeditious sales the US Ag Secretary talked about last Friday. Recent trades/strength at the Gulf suggest something might be brewing but the longer we go without seeing any noticeable sales announcements the greater chance price start a new leg down. Weekly export sales are out in the morning. We’ll see what those look like as well as deliveries and go from there.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/28
May Soybeans: $9.07 (?) – $9.30
May Soybean Meal: $305.0 (?) – 314.0
May Soybean Oil: $29.90 ($29.60) – $30.70
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