Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 5 ¾ cents higher ($8.31 ¾), July 5 ½ cents higher ($8.37 ½) & Nov 5 ¼ cents higher ($8.44 ¼)

May Soybean Meal closed $1.4 higher ($283.2), July $0.2 higher ($288.6) & Dec $0.9 higher ($294.6)

May Soybean Oil closed 48 pts higher ($25.78), July 40 pts higher ($26.17) & Dec 38 pts higher ($27.01)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

USDA announces 108.8 K T. of soybeans sold to Mexico (65.3 K T. old crop, 43.5 K T. new crop)

Soybean oil gets a lift from higher palm and crude oil prices. Soybean meal gets a minor lift from a short term oversold scenario. Soybeans catch some technical buying as suspected interim support holds. Adding to the support for soybeans is the continued wishing and hoping for additional Chinese biz as well as the higher Brazilian real. Delivery ideas for May soybeans are in the light to modest category.

The interior soybean basis runs mostly steady. River locations show a firm undertone as do processors. The export basis reads clearly firmer. Bull spreads were working within the current crop year while new crop spreads showed just the opposite, a bearish bias. Not a lot of change in the cash meal offers, maybe a touch lower. The meal export basis remains quiet. May meal gains noticeably on July but I have to think that is tied to May deliveries scheduled to start tomorrow. July forward meal spreads continue to widen.

July soybeans honor suspected interim support levels but that’s about it. To put a positive technical spin on prices July beans, minimally, need to see a close above $8.48. Closes below $8.29 would not be received in a favorable light. Soybean meal continues to be the dog of the complex. Yes, prices did stage a minor upside reversal but we’ve seen these before. It was just last week we saw one at higher levels. On Friday the USDA will give us its March monthly crush data and the trade is anticipating a record number of soybeans processed. Back in March Board crush margins were running 20-60 cents higher vs. where we are now. Let’s hope product offtake between now and then was substantial. Soybean oil holds its March contract lows and with the rebound in energy prices short covering ensues. In the short term I have think July bean oil runs into problems as it approaches the $26.60 – $26.80 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/30

July Soybeans – $8.29 ($8.25) – $8.46

July Soy Meal – $285.0 (?) – $293.0

July Soy Oil – $25.80 – $26.60

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