Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 4 ¼ cents higher ($8.38 ¼), July 3 cents higher ($8.39 ½) & Nov ¾ cent higher ($8.46 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $1.5 higher ($284.8), July $1.0 higher ($289.4) & Dec $0.2 higher ($294.6)

May Soybean Oil closed 17 pts higher ($25.97), July 16 pts higher ($26.31) & Dec 12 pts higher ($27.17)

USDA announces 378.0 K T. of soybeans sold to China (136.0 K T. old crop, 242.0 K T. new crop)

Soybeans and soybean meal get back a small portion of what they lost on Monday. Strong outside markets (equities & energies) lent support when the flat price tried further Monday’s losses.  Another round of Chinese buying was viewed as supportive. It seems the US administration will hold off on potential repercussions relating to the virus as long as China lives up to the Phase One agreement. New buying was viewed as limited due to the fast pace of planting as well as the idea we could see another hike in the old crop carryout on Monday. Offsetting some of this should be a lower new crop carryout.

Interior soybean basis levels read steady to higher; processors are steady while river locations read higher. The midday posting at the Gulf shows some easiness from last night’s posting. Soybean spreads showed a bullish bias led by the soon to expire May contract. Soybean spreads were similar to that in corn – buying old crop selling the new crop. I’m not seeing any changes in the offers to sell cash soybean meal yet bull spreads were working there as well.

July soybeans continue to honor suspected interim support at the $8.30 level. July soybean meal challenges last week’s contract low and manages to close higher. July soybean oil continues to retrace away from the double bottom that was registered last Monday. It is my thought that we will not see much of a move in either direction for the complex until we see the data from the USDA next Monday.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/06

July Soybeans – $8.29 (?) – $8.47

July Soy Meal – $286.0 – $293.0

July Bean Oil – $25.80 – $26.80

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