Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans expired ¾ cent lower ($8.35 ¼), July closed 2 ½ cents lower ($8.37) & Nov 1 ¾ cents lower ($8.43 ¾)

May Soybean Meal expired unchanged ($285.2), July closed $2.4 lower ($288.2) & Dec $2.0 lower ($293.4)

May Soybean Oil expired 29 pts higher ($25.92), July closed 27 pts higher ($26.18) & Dec 25 pts higher ($26.98)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 655.5 K T. old crop vs. 500 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 440.0 K T. new crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 101.4 K T. old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – 18.8 K T. new crop vs. 0-75 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 6.7 K T. old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – 2.8 K T. new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

USDA announces 198 K T. of soybeans sold to China (132 K T. old crop, 66 K T. new crop)

USDA announces 20.0 K T. of old crop soybean oil sold to China

IEG Vantage (formerly Informa) suggests planted soybean acreage is 85.890 million vs. USDA at 83.5 million

It was a mixed trade for the soybean market on Thursday as it appeared the price action was torn between sagging meal prices and a slight rebound in soybean oil prices (announced sale and higher energy prices). Weekly export sales were deemed as no big deal for either old crop or new crop. Weekly product sales were no biggie either. Soybean oil managed a noticeable bounce off of its early lows buoyed by the announced sale to China (the first since 2018) and higher energy prices. I have to think next week’s soybean export sales will be a decent number as rumored purchases have not matched what the USDA has been reporting through their daily reporting system. This makes sense for China to fly under the radar so there is no fronting running by the spec sector. For what it is worth May soybean expired with just one flat price quote for the day while May meal and soybean oil expired without a flat price trade.

If there are any changes in the Midwest soybean basis its easier. The Ohio river is 3 cents lower, Savanna, IL is 10 cents lower and Davenport, IA is 2 cents lower. The gulf basis continues to show a firm bias but it’s not like it is running away from us. Soybean spreads ran fractionally easier in the day. Offers to sell cash soybean meal run unchanged but they are holding onto to recent improvements. Meal spreads ran similar to soybean spreads, fractionally easier on the day.

It looks like the entire soybean complex has moved into a holding pattern unable to follow through in either direction. I didn’t know better the soybean trade is all dependent on Chinese interest. Hoping for better business lends support while the lack of market making business is the resistance. July soybeans closing below $829-$8.30 looks like it will attract further selling and the same holds true for July meal if it closes below $287.0. I’m content to call July bean oil a trading range affair between $25.00 and $27.00.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/15

July Soybeans – $8.30 ($8.25) – $8.50

July Soy Meal – $286.0 – $292.0

July Bean Oil – $25.80 – $26.80

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.