Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 11 ¾ cents lower ($8.35), August 10 ¾ cents lower ($8.38 ½) & Nov 8 ½ cents lower ($8.45 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $3.0 lower ($282.5), August $2.9 lower ($284.4) & Dec $2.2 lower ($290.9)

July Soybean Oil closed 25 pts lower ($27.11), August 23 pts lower ($27.30) & Dec 22 pts lower ($27.93)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.205 M T. old crop vs. 500 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 464.0 K T. new crop vs. 300-600 K T.

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 198.8 K T. old crop vs. 75-250 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 62.1 K T. old crop vs. 15-45 K T. expected – 0.5 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly old crop soybean export sales were better than expected as were soybean oil sales (it did look like some Chinese purchases flew below the USDA’s daily reporting radar). Soybean meal sales were no big deal. Unfortunately the soybean market did not gain any traction with the sales data as it seems the trades’ focus is on the fragile relationship between the US and China. Maybe its my imagination but in my opinion it looks like the US administration is doing all they can to upset the US’ biggest buyer of soybeans. They will resist, they don’t like being told what to do, what not to do. Adding to the lack of buying is the idea that weather forecasts into the month of June appear to be conducive to a good start for the fledgling crop.

The interior Midwest river basis continue to flip-flop depending upon where high water is an issue vs. locations where it’s not. Elsewhere basis locations are fully steady. Nearby Board crush margins are stable but I’m not sure they could stand much more soybean meal weakness. The Gulf basis for soybeans is steady but not really doing much of anything. Soybean spreads continue to show a widening bias. Offers to cash soybean meal are mixed – steady to better in the east and steady to easier as one moves west. The export market remains quiet. Meal spreads continue to show a widening bias.

Yesterday I talked about the short term look for July soybeans showing a minor upflagging effort – that flagging effort rolled over today. $8.30 continues to be a near term pivot for July soybeans. Soybean meal sees another round of new contract lows, contract low closes. Weekly charts suggest you don’t want to see the May contract low of $278.8 taken out. July soybean oil is now showing an interim double top against Tuesday’s high. The challenge of that high coupled with today’s lower close suggests some near term downside potential.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/22

July Soybeans – $8.29 (?) – $8.45

July Soy Meal – $280.50 – $286.0

July Bean Oil – $26.75 – $27.40

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.