Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 1 ½ cents lower ($8.47), August 1 cent lower ($8.49 ¼) & Nov ½ cent higher ($8.56)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.3 higher ($284.3), August $1.9 higher ($286.3) & Dec $1.5 higher ($293.7)

July Soybean Oil closed 21 pts lower ($27.39), August 22 pts lower ($27.57) & Dec 22 pts lower ($28.24)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 400-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

The US soybean market remains stuck spinning its wheels due to ongoing tensions between the US and China due to the new Chinese involvement in Hong Kong. Soybean oil corrected from its recent rally as did the palm oil market. Soybean meal managed a minor rally from new contract lows mostly due to inter-market spreading vs. the bean oil market. Down in Argentina we know the producer has been a slow seller as he’s quite unhappy with the country’s politics. Adding to those woes are some logistical problems developing. The Parana river that services some of tier main points are plagued with low water levels, the lowest in 50 years is the tout. Those problems will work to slow their exports. Will the US be able to pick up some of that is the question.

The only activity I’m seeing with the Midwestern soybean basis continues to be at river locations not impacted by the recent high water and those levels are firm. As in corn I don’t see much happening with the soybean basis at the Gulf. Soybean spreads ran a bit easier today on fears that China will continue to shun US origin given the latest to-do. Basis offers to sell cash soybean meal run unchanged and they remain nothing to write home about. Meal spreads had a minor plus to them but I have to think that was mostly due to the minor short covering seen in both the flat price and with the inter-market spreads.

July soybean oil still shows formidable resistance against the $28.00 level. July soybean meal scores yet another minor upside reversal, new contract lows while closing higher on the day. July soybeans continue to be a range bound affair from $8.30 to $8.60.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/28

July Soybeans: $8.38 – $8.55

July Soy Meal: $282.0 – $287.5

July Bean Oil: $26.90 – $28.00

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