Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed ½ cent higher ($8.66), August ¼ cent higher ($8.68) & Nov ¼ cent lower ($8.76 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $0.9 higher ($289.7), August $0.9 higher ($292.2) & Dec $1.0 higher ($299.5)

July Soybean Oil closed 50 pts lower ($27.50), August 50 pts lower ($27.69) & Dec 48 pts lower ($28.44)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.003 M T. old crop vs. 400-900 K T. expected – 1.212 M T. new crop vs. 300-800 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 208.0 K T. old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – -19.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 9.5 K T. old crop vs. 10-35 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

USDA announces 720 K T. soybeans sold to China (63 K T. old, 657 K T. new)

Highlights of June Supply-Demand – US Old Crop – lowered production by 5 million bu., raised crush by 15 million bu., lowered exports by 25 million bu., increased carryout by 5 million bu. – US New Crop – Increased carryin by 5 million bu., raised crush by 15 million bu., lowered carryout by 10 million bu. – World Old Crop – lowered carryout by 1.08 M T. – World New Crop – lowered carryout by 2.05 M T.

It was a mixed but tight trading range day the soybean and soybean meal markets. Soybean oil comes unglued with the break in energies. The USDA supply-demand report didn’t give us a whole lot to hang our hats on as the lower new crop carryout is expected to rise as the trade is expecting to see more soybean planted acres at the end of the month (N. Dakota). Weekly export sales were outstanding as the sales reported were far above what the USDA announced through their daily reporting system. The announced daily sale was also a bit of a surprise. As long as the Chinese keep buying the bias will be for higher prices especially if we get the weather scare that is being touted in the 6-10 day.

Not much happens with the interior soybean basis other than a couple of river locations doing some minor flip-flopping. The Gulf is staying firm. Spreads within the old crop saw fractional improvements while old crop was a modest gainer on the new crop. Domestic offers to sell cash soybean meal remain quiet while the export market continues to firm. Meal spreads didn’t do much of anything.

As far as I’m concerned the soybean and soybean meal charts remain constructive looking for higher prices. Yesterday’s suggested sell signal in bean oil was true to form today as prices appear to be breaking down. If the meal market is indeed going to go higher soybean oil will be the recipient of the sell side on inter-market spreads.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/12

July Soybeans: $8.60 – $8.75 ($8.80)

July Soy Meal: $288.0 – $295.0

July Bean Oil: $27.15 – $28.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.