Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 3 ¼ cents lower ($8.95 ¼), August 1 ¾ cents lower ($8.96 ¾) & Nov 3 ¾ cents lower ($9.02 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.1 lower ($293.3), August $2.3 lower ($295.5) & Dec $2.9 lower ($303.1)

July Soybean Oil closed 34 pts higher ($28.76), August 33 pts higher ($28.87) & Dec 33 pts higher ($29.56)

Soybean prices sag on forecasts for beneficial moisture and moderating temps beginning in the western Midwest as early as Thursday night and then traversing east into the weekend. As far as next week is concerned I‘ve seen hot and dry as well as warm and wet. It was disappointing to the recent bulls to see the meal market as the downside leader today. You’ve heard me say it numerous times – if the meal market can’t do it soybeans will struggle trying to sustain a rally. I’m not expecting much impact from the USDA supply-demand update on Friday as most have already factored in the new acres as well as any impact for the quarterly stocks figure. The average trade guess for soybean production is 4.152 billion bu. (4.125 in June) and 420 million bu. (395 in June) for the projected new crop carryout. The old crop carryout estimate is unchanged at 585 million bu. On a side note – the USDA attaché in Beijing is suggesting China’s soybean imports for the coming year will be 91.0 M T. In the June report the USDA pegged China’s soybean imports at 96.0 M T.

It looks like the November soybean chart is ready to go into a correction phase as we wait to see how the short term forecasts materialize. The first support level for this most recent leg up is down towards the $8.80 level. The $9.10 – $9.20 level will continue to act as resistance. Dec meal will continue to struggle against the $310.0 resistance level. Support may be the halfway back level of the recent rally, $298.0. If that level fails to hold then we look at something closer to the $295.0 level. Dec bean oil registers new highs and close for the current move higher; nothing bearish about that. If the bean oil market continues with its grind higher it may work to provide some indirect support to soybeans but the best it will do is to keep the soybean market alive.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/08

Aug Soybeans: $8.85 – $9.02

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.07

Dec Soy Meal: $298.0 – $306.0

Dec Soy Oil: $29.10 – $29.95

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.