Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 3 ½ cents higher ($8.98 ¼), August 4 cents higher ($8.96 ½) & Nov 4 ¼ cents higher ($9.01 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $3.5 higher ($295.1), August $3.5 higher ($297.3) & Dec $3.6 higher ($305.4)

July Soybean Oil closed 27 pts lower ($28.19), August 26 pts lower ($28.29) & Dec 29 pts lower ($28.92)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 952.2 K T. old crop vs. 300-800 K T. expected – 382.1 KK T. new crop vs. 400 K – 1.000 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 124.4 K T. old crop vs. 75-250 K T. expected – 73.5 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 28.9 K T. old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

The price action is soybeans was similar to that we saw in corn – firm overnight and into the early part of the day session. The balance of the day session was spent retracing part of that rally. The meal market held relatively form for most of the session as spreading against bean oil was quite notable. Bean oil was subject to the whims of the palm and energy markets which were both lower. Weekly old crop soybean export sales were nothing short of stout; not so much for the new crop. As far as tomorrow’s supply-demand update is concerned I’m not expecting much of change in the old crop carryout. The new crop data will incorporate the acres which should lead to a slightly higher production figure. The wild card for the new crop will be if there are any changes to the demand sector. As in corn the before and after the report will be all about the weather and what it may present. There’s rain and moderating temps on the short term. The longer term forecasts talk about renewed heating while moisture calls remain vague.

Chart Talk – November soybeans once again do some probing of the suspected resistance level $9.00 to $9.20 and fail to offer any follow through. I’m not saying we’re rejecting this price level but we’ll need to know more about the developing crop and that comes down to the weather going forward. The price action is December meal remains positive looking (downflagging) especially after the previous two days of trying to sell off. $310.0 remains the initial resistance level while support is $300.0 to $298.0. December soybean oil – beats me.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/10

Aug Soybeans: $8.85 – $9.05 (?)

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.10 (?)

Dec Soy Meal: $300.0 – $310.0 (?)

Dec Soy Oil: $28.60 – $29.60

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