Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans expired 5 ¾ cents higher ($8.82 ¼), August closed 4 cents higher ($8.78) & Nov 2 ¼ cents higher ($8.77 ½)

July Soybean Meal expired $0.6 higher ($283.7), August closed $0.6 higher ($285.2) & Dec $0.6 higher ($292.3)

July Soybean Oil expired 51 pts higher ($28.48), August closed 38 pts higher ($28.46) & Dec 39 pts higher ($29.09)

USDA announces 129 K T. of new crop soybeans sold to China

The soybean market was another market with less than inspiring price action. I would equate today’s price action as a dead cat bounce. If bean oil hadn’t been as strong as it was soybean could have easily finished modestly lower on the day. The soybean meal market offered absolutely no help to solidifying prices. If Chinese demand is going to be a market maker a couple of announced cargoes is not going to cut it. The inability to sustain a substantial bounce goes back to the idea that we are going to see beneficial weather over the near term. With the recent model disagreements I’m not finding many forecasters that are willing to offer definite ideas beyond a few days. If the model disagreements continue it sets the stage for another big Sunday night.

Despite the recent break in the flat price the interior Midwestern soybean basis runs steady to easier. Processing margins stink and export shipments have been no great shakes. The Gulf continues to show a steady to firm bias due to the Illinois River basically shutting down. Soybean spreads show a tightening bias out to January then its downhill from there. The cash meal market looks soft whether it’s for domestic use or for export. Meal spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day.

$8.70 to $8.65 still looks like the best near term support for November soybeans. Near term resistance is the mid-high $8.80’s. Today’s inside day of Monday doesn’t do a lot for me as far as a sign of realizing support. December soybean meal appears destined to check out the support at the $290.0 – $288.0 level. The best I see happening here is the development of a $290.0 to $300.0 trading affair. I still feel like a lost soul trying to get a handle on the bean oil price action. As of this writing I’ll call it a $28.00 to $30.00 trading affair basis the December contract.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/15

Aug Soybeans: $8.70 ($8.65) – $8.87

Nov Soybeans: $8.70 ($8.65) – $8.87

Dec Soy Meal: $290.0 – $296.0

Dec Soy Oil: $28.60 – $29.60

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.