Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 5 ¼ cents lower ($8.91 ½), Sept 3 ¼ cents lower ($8.84 ½) & Nov 2 ¼ cents lower ($8.85 ¼)

August Soybean Meal closed $2.0 lower ($286.9), Sept $1.9 lower ($289.9) & Dec $1.7 lower ($295.8)

August Soybean Oil closed 25 pts higher ($29.67), Sept 19 pts higher ($29.72) & Dec 14 pts higher ($30.06)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 1.500-2.000 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 150-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-75 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

It’s a familiar story – soybeans get caught between slightly better soyoil prices vs. easier soymeal prices. Crop conditions are good and forecasts are not threatening. As in corn the idea is that we have improving yields out there despite we have yet to get into the pod-filling stage. That will begin over the next few weeks. Weekly export sales are due in the morning and once again the trade is looking for large sales. They had better be large, if not larger than expected, or I have to think soybeans will continue to move lower.

I’m not seeing much day-to-day changes with the interior Midwestern soybean basis. The Gulf soybean basis is holding its own. Soybean spreads showed a widening bias on Wednesday led by the August contract. In recent days August soybeans had been gaining on the spread. I think today’s action is a result of first notice day on Friday as traders even their positions not wanting to play the delivery game. Not much happens with the soybean meal basis whether it’s for domestic usage or for export. Meal spreads showed a slight widening bias as board crush margins are continuing to rebound.

For the time being November soybeans are honoring the suggested minor interim support at the $8.80 – $8.85 level. Whether we hold or not will be dependent on tomorrow’s sales report. Looking at the chart all by itself without knowing what’s behind the fundamental rationale it looks lower to me. As of this writing I’m thinking something closer to the $8.70 level. After trying to rally for the previous two weeks December meal’s price action is telling us its going nowhere fast; at least not on the upside. December soybean oil continues to be in a downside correction phase. The double top just above the $31.00 level suggests to me this market has gone high enough. We may jerk around between the mid-$29.00’s and the mid-$30.00’s for the near term.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/30

Sept Soybeans: $8.78 – $8.97

Nov Soybeans: $8.78 – $8.96

Dec Soy Meal: $294.0 – $299.0

Dec Soy Oil: $29.60 – $30.60

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.