August Soybeans closed 1 ½ cents higher ($8.78), Sept ½ cent higher ($8.70 ½) & Nov ¼ cent higher ($8.73 ½)
August Soybean Meal closed $0.2 lower ($282.0), Sept $0.3 lower ($284.1) & Dec $0.1 lower ($289.5)
August Soybean Oil closed 13 pts lower ($31.06), Sept 11 pts lower ($30.62) & Dec 24 pts lower ($30.51)
USDA announces new crop soybean sales – 132.0 K T. to China
It was not much of a trade today ahead of tomorrow’s USDA production/supply-demand report, not even a 7 cent range in November soybeans. Despite finishing a shade easier December soybean meal honored yesterday’s “key” reversal. December soybean oil continues to downflag from last week’s interim high that did feature a minor downside reversal off of that high. CONAB updated this past season’s Brazilian soybean production. 120.936 M T. vs. 120.883 last month vs. 126.0 M T. USDA. The discrepancy between CONAB’s production number vs. the USDA may throw a monkey wrench at the World old crop soybean data which could lead to a lower World new crop carryout.
Expected USDA soybean yield – 51.2 bpa vs. 49.8 last month
Expected USDA soybean production – 4.254 billion bu. vs. 4.135 last month
Expected USDA new crop soybean carryout – 524 million bu. vs. 425 last month
Expected USDA old crop soybean carryout – 617 million bu. vs. 620 last month
Expected USDA World new crop soybean carryout – 97.57 M T. vs. 95.08 last month
Expected USDA World old crop soybean carryout – 99.08 M T. vs. 99.67 last month
So now we wait to see what the USDA has to say. As in the case of corn can the USDA offset a hike in the soybean yield with a hike in demand?
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/12
Nov Soybeans: $8.60 – $8.90
Dec Soybean Meal: $285.0 (?) – $297.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $30.00 – $31.25
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