Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 3 ½ cents higher ($9.73), Nov 5 cents higher ($9.73) & March 3 ¼ cents higher ($9.77)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $2.6 lower ($307.2), Dec $2.6 lower ($314.6) & March $1.9 lower ($317.1)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 49 pts higher ($33.57), Dec 51 pts higher ($33.40) & March 54 pts higher ($33.70)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 664 K T. to China

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.295 M T. vs. 650 K – 1.100 M T. expected

Weekly US Soybean Crop Rating & Progress – 65% GE (-1%) vs. 64% expected vs. 55% year ago – Dropping Leaves – 20% vs. 16% 5-year average

What’s bullish – Anticipation of the USDA lowering production/carryout next Friday. Anticipation that the condition of the soybean crop will continue to decline. The US will enjoy an excellent start to its new crop export season. Have the recent rains come to late to be of benefit to the developing soybean crop.

What’s bearish – will the recent rains benefit the late planted soybean crop? It seems the WH is doing its best to discourage the economic benefit when dealing with China. The speculative sector is the longest they have been in soybeans dating back to the spring of 2018.

The November soybean chart appears to have $9.85 (contract high?) in its sights. A modest degree of overbought is developing. $9.50 appears to he first level of decent looking support. Last week’s early correction has December meal targeting the $322.00 level. After that it seems there is technical resistance every $5.00 up. The first level of minor support is $308.0 followed $304.0 down to $300.0. December soybean oil has moved into consolidation at its recent upper end. Last Monday it registered a downside reversal but has yet to confirm. Closes below $32.65 will offer that confirmation. Closes above $34.10 will suggest something closer to $35.50.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/09

Nov Soybeans: $9.60 – $9.80

Dec Soybean Meal: $312.0 – $318.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $33.00 – $34.10 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.