Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Nov Soybeans closed 6 ¼ cents lower ($11.37), March 6 ¾ cents lower ($11.44 ¾) & July 8 ¼ cents lower ($11.36)

December Soybean Meal closed $4.6 lower ($388.10), March $4.3 lower ($382.9) & July $2.9 lower ($375.9)

December Soybean Oil closed 8 pts lower ($37.05), March 16 pts lower ($36.65) & July 13 pts lower ($36.15)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 k – 1.800 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 30-90 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Despite a slightly lower close soybean oil does well holding onto yesterday’s rally. Soybean meal has now retraced a good portion of Tuesday’s rally. Soybeans get caught in the middle of the two.  Weekly export sales have a wide range of guesses which suggests the possibility that sales may be slowing. Another item similar to the cash corn market is the slide in the Gulf market. It has to make on wonder if the Gulf is currently plugged. The next CFTC Commitment of Traders report will encompass an 80 cent rally and if you believe the daily fund report 40-60 K new longs. Brazil is seeing scattered moisture around nothing real general.

The entire soybean complex has room to break without damaging the trend because it has gotten relatively steep. Better weather in Brazil could easily create a healthy correction. Personally I’m not interested in trading anticipating a correction but if the market does indeed start to correct I will look for spots for ownership. Watch your meal market as it has become the weak sister of the complex. Weak meal vs. strong bean oil equals consolidation for soybeans.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/13

Jan Soybeans: $11.36 – $11.55

Dec Soy Meal: $384.0 – $394.0

Dec Soy Oil: $36.50 – $37.50 (?)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.