Jan Soybeans closed 5 ¾ cents lower ($11.52 ¾), March 4 ¾ cents lower ($11.58 ¾) & July 4 ½ cents lower ($11.58 ½)
December Soybean Meal closed $3.4 lower ($381.0), March $2.0 lower ($379.4) & July $1.2 lower ($379.1)
December Soybean Oil closed 20 pts higher ($38.96), March 21 pts higher ($37.93) & July 17 pts higher ($37.53)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 569.0 K T. old crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected – 168.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-250 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 163.6 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 8.4 K T. old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
CONAB – Brazilian Soybean Production – 134.45 M T. vs. 134.9 M T. (Nov) vs. 133.00 M T. (USDA)
USDA Supply-Demand – US soybean carryout comes down 15 M bu. as crush is hiked 15 M bu. – World projected soybean stocks come down 880 K T.
US Soybean Stocks-to-Usage – 3.85% vs. 4.20% last month
Despite a cut to both US and World carryout data it was not as much as the trade was expecting. In other words the cuts were not supportive enough to justify the pre-report rally. The weather in SA is just enough to keep the supply bulls at bay. Forecasts continue to call for periodic rains fluctuating from north to south and back again. SA soybean development should continue to be the day-to-day primary topic of discussion. Any noticeable decline in SA production should vault soybean prices higher given the US STU of less than 4%. Going forward given today’s disappointing trade for the bulls it would not surprise me to see some further spec liquidation going into the year end.
Interior cash soybean markets are quiet as is the export market (this holds true for the forward timeslots as well). Spreads are easing with the flat price selling. The cash meal market is seeing similar characteristics as are the spreads.
Take out the recent 5-6 day lows in the soybean market and selling should accelerate. Couldn’t help but notice how today’s morning rally honored suggested interim resistance levels. Soybean meal continues to be the weak link of the complex. Can the strength in the soybean oil market keep the soybean market alive?
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/11
Jan Soybeans: $11.44 – $11.67
Jan Soy Meal: $373.0 – $382.5
Jan Soy Oil: $37.50 – $38.50
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.