Jan Soybeans closed 14 ¾ cents higher ($11.84 ¼), March 14 ¼ cents higher ($11.88 ¾) & July 12 ¾ cents higher ($11.88)
January Soybean Meal closed $7.5 higher ($388.2), March $6.9 higher ($388.9) & July $4.3 higher ($387.0)
January Soybean Oil closed 46 pts higher ($39.19), March 39 pts higher ($38.91) & July 26 pts higher ($38.37)
Meal is the deal as it rallies out of its recent minor sideways mode. The November NOPA crush was a catalyst as it suggested November meal exports (1.081 M T.) were at its highest dating back to 2013. The NOPA November crush came in at 181.018 million bu. vs. million expected. Normally a crush number larger than expected tends to weigh on the meal market but not this time as the export figure dominated. Soybean oil NOPA stocks came in slightly larger than expected but not enough to keep the market down. Last but not least iffy weather ideas for SA provided underlying support.
The interior soybean basis runs steady to mixed (Ohio River 2 cents better, Savanna, IL 1 cents easier, all other locations steady). The spot Gulf market reads steady vs. the past couple of days while the Jan & Feb time slots read a bit better. Bull spreads were noticeably working all the way out to the new crop. The interior soybean meal basis reads fully steady while the export market is steady upfront, mixed for the early months of the New Year. Meal spreads followed the route of the soybean spreads.
Soybean charts appear poised to see what the $12.00 level looks like (once again). Daily momentum indicators are slowly but surely trying to shift higher. Soybean meal charts have the same look as its momentum indicators are also trying to shift higher. Soybean oil registers an outside day with new highs and new high closes. My bottom line – the technical look at the soybean complex suggests higher prices over the near term and the potential for much higher prices longer term.
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/16
Mch Soybeans: $11.83 – $12.00 (?)
Mch Soy Meal: $386.0 – $394.0
Mch Soy Oil: $38.50 – ???
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