Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Jan Soybeans closed 40 ¼ cents higher ($12.95 ½), March 38 ¾ cents higher ($12.96) & July 38 ¾ cents higher ($12.88)

Jan Soybean Meal closed $11.7 higher ($427.0), March $11.6 higher ($424.3) & July $11.1 higher ($419.0)

Jan Soybean Oil closed 76 pts higher ($42.48), March 70 pts higher ($41.75) & July 69 pts higher ($40.55)

Was it the lack of an announcement around today’s labor negotiations in Argentina that propelled soybeans to their biggest one day advance since the rally started? As of this writing I have not seen any result of these negotiations. Was it the continued strength in the cash markets (both interior and for export) that propelled prices higher? Was it the development of price rationing that propelled prices higher? Is China making their last push to meet the terms of the Phase One deal for 2020? Was it just plain old technical buying that attracts outside buyers as prices move higher?

The 14-day RSI for March soybeans is 82, for March meal 75 and for March soybean oil 78. Yes, these are relatively lofty numbers but not yet dramatic. As I have mentioned in the past the higher the market goes the greater volatility. A great example of this was Monday’s trade; a nice looking suggestive reversal with absolutely no follow through. So what’s next on the upside? During the break of 2014 there was an interim retracement high against $13.40. After that we look at something closer to $14.00. So far the threats of a short SA crop have been mostly that; just threats. If these weather related threats come to fruition there is no telling just how high we go. For now it’s just one day at a time waiting for inter-day extremes to develop on the downside (for buying opportunities).

Daily Support & Resistance – 12/30

March Beans : $12.85 – ???

March Meal: $421.0 – ???

March Bean Oil: $41.40 – ???

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.