Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Jan Soybeans closed 8 ¼ cents higher ($13.03 ¾), March 4 ½ cents higher ($13.00 ½) & July 2 ½ cents higher ($12.90 ½)

Jan Soybean Meal closed $5.4 higher ($432.4), March $3.5 higher ($427.8) & July $0.8 higher ($419.8)

Jan Soybean Oil closed 19 pts higher ($42.67), March 11 pts higher ($41.86) & July 6 pts higher ($40.61)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-40 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Yesterday evening Argentina announced the end to the labor strike and the markets acted accordingly by selling off. Unfortunately for those that are trying to say the market is in line for a correction they came away disappointed as the correction did not last. There was a number of occasions during the session where the market tried to sell off but when push came to shove the buying was there to bring prices back to the plus side. Concerns over the potential size of the SA soybean crop continues to be one of the primary drivers. Additionally, many are expecting to see the USDA give us more bullish data on January 12th. Add it all up and it spells price/demand rationing.

The interior soybean basis continues to show a strong bias despite a couple of locations showing some minor easing. The Gulf stays strong. January deliveries start tonight and I’m not expecting to see any. Spreads within the current crop year stay firm. It was interesting to note the that old crop/new crop spreads lost ground. I’ll call that month end, quarter end, year end profit taking. Product spreads ran the same route as soybean spreads including the profit taking on the old crop/new spreads.

It was just 8 trading days ago that March soybeans eclipsed the $12.00 level and now we are at $13.00. One would think this is just a little bit too fast, too strong but I don’t see anyone will to stand in front of it. Given tomorrow’s date (month end, quarter end, year-end) I’ll leave the door open for anything and everything to happen. For what it is worth the 14-day RSI for March soybean is 82, March meal at 77 and March soybean oil a 79.

Daily Support & Resistance – 12/31

March Beans : $12.80 – ???

March Meal: $420.0 – ???

March Bean Oil: $41.30 – ???

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