March Soybeans closed 31 ¾ cents higher ($13.43 ½), July 30 cents higher ($13.28 ½) & Nov 18 ¼ cents higher (11.30 ¼)
March Soybean Meal $8.0 higher ($429.6), July closed $8.5 higher ($422.5) & Dec $7.0 higher ($367.6)
March Soybean Oil closed 67 pts higher ($42.94), July closed 65 pts higher ($41.72) & Dec 45 pts higher ($38.87)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.978 M T. vs. 1.000-2.100 M T. expected
Welcome to the wonderful world of volatility!! March soybeans registered a 54 cent daily range, March meal a $17.0 range and March bean oil a 175 pt range. The Sunday night trade featured two-sided price action. The Monday trade was all about buying the $1.37 break in March Beans that dated back to January 13th. The latest from Brazil is recent excessive moisture delaying some of the harvest ready soybeans. Argentina is showing a dryer bias but rains are in the forecast. Weekly soybean export inspections favored the high side of expectations which in turn furthered the intra-day rally. During the day rumors surfaced around some Chinese soybean purchases but as of this writing no confirmation. There is a nationwide trucker strike scheduled for Brazil beginning February 1st and the Chinese New Year begins on the 12th so there might be some angst by the Chinese.
The interior Midwestern soybean basis continues to show a defensive posture; this includes processors as well as river locations involved with export. The Gulf basis shows a softening mode as well. Despite cash markets being on the defensive bull spreads were working today within the old crop as well as old crop vs. new crop. Not much happens with the interior soybean meal offers while the export market appears to be noticeably lower. March to May meal was $0.50 softer while May to August was steady. Old crop meal gains on the new crop.
First level resistance for March soybeans is the $13.50 level. We traded $13.52 ¼ today before seeing some minor easing going into the close. Similar type resistance for March meal is the $440.0 level. The best we saw today was $434.5. March soybean oil has a totally different looking price picture when compared to soybeans and soybean meal. Soybean oil looks like a downflag that is trying to springboard higher. To get soybean oil back on track for higher prices we need to see closes above the $44.00. Going forward the complex’s price action will continue to be dictated by export and SA weather considerations.
Daily & Resistance – 01/26
March Beans : $13.20 – $13.60
March Meal: $422.0 – $438.0
March Bean Oil: $42.00 – $44.00
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