March Soybeans closed 21 ½ cents lower ($13.53 ¼), July 21 ½ cents lower ($13.33) & Nov 18 cents lower (11.31 ¼)
March Soybean Meal $9.5 lower ($427.1), July closed $9.6 lower ($419.4) & Dec $7.5 lower ($363.9)
March Soybean Oil closed 13 pts higher ($44.65), July closed 2 pts higher ($42.98) & Dec 3 pts lower ($39.91)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 466.0 K T. old crop vs. 800 K – 1.400 M T. expected – 1.564 M T. new crop vs. 250-550 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 142.2 K T. old crop vs. 150-400 K T. expected – 90.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 19.1 K T. old crop vs. 10-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Soybeans and soybean meal try to stay alive in the night session. The day session started with an opening bulge due to surging corn prices but when prices failed to eclipse yesterday’s highs the selling started in earnest. The high for March soybeans was $13.91 ¾ and the low was $13.45 ½. The high in March meal was $440.7 and the day’s low was $424.5. Far less than expected weekly soybean export sales is given as the rationale for the break. Meal sales were also nothing to write home about other than less than expected. Both of these markets tried to retrace their early break but by the end the day it was a very disappointing performance. Soybean oil tried to go it alone but it too ran into selling when it failed to eclipse yesterday highs. Overall soybean oil remains the stalwart of the soybean complex but after today’s price action it appears ready for some backing and filling of its recent rally.
With the exception of the Ohio River basis trying to bounce back (+4 cents) the remainder of the Midwestern soybean basis locations ran steady on the day but overall maintaining recent weakness. Most of these interior basis levels remain noticeably lower vs. where they were at mid-month. The midday posting of the Gulf soybean basis continues to show easing. Soybean spreads were fractionally mixed upfront while old crop eases to the new crop. Offers to sell cash meal run steady to easier in the domestic market as well as the gulf. Meal spreads were mixed upfront while old crop eased vs. the new crop.
Soybean charts, both old crop and new crop, are trying to advertise the party is over for the near term. I’m seeing the same type of price in soybean meal. The infamous July/Nov soybean spread is advertising the same. It looks like March soybeans are going to revisit the $13.00 level and November soybeans the $10.90 level. March meal may see something closer to the $400.0 level. All bets are off once we get closer to the February 9th USDA Supply-Demand update.
Daily & Resistance – 01/29
March Beans : $13.35 ($13.20) – $13.65
March Meal: $419.0 – $436.0
March Bean Oil: $43.90 – $45.00
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