May Soybeans closed 3 ¾ cents higher ($14.23 ¼), July 3 ½ cents higher ($14.13 ¾) & Nov 1 cent higher (12.45)
May Soybean Meal closed $1.3 lower ($406.1), July $0.6 lower ($405.9) & Dec $1.8 higher ($373.8)
May Soybean Oil closed unchanged ($55.09), July 11 pts lower ($53.35) & Dec 26 pts lower ($48.87)
Soybeans see a two-sided trade on Tuesday finishing with modest gains in the old crop and just slight gains in the new crop. The product markets see a similar trade; meal slightly lower upfront and slightly better in the back while bean oil finished unchanged upfront and modest losses going forward. Soybean traders still want to talk about the slow rate of harvest yet Brazil talks about the potential for record exports in the month of March. Product markets seesaw back and forth as the question comes up; is soybean oil making a top of sorts vs. meal making a bottom of sorts. Most of this stems from the meal/oil being grossly oversold prior to yesterday’s suggested reversal. Argentina is seeing decent rains as we speak. Are these rains too little too late?
Interior cash soybean markets are mixed. Processors continue to stand in for soybeans while river locations are backing away. The gulf basis for soybeans moved noticeably lower at its midday posting. Soybean spreads were mostly steady within he old crop while old crop gains on the new crop. The meal basis, both domestic and for export, doesn’t do much. Meal spreads showed a bearish bias on the day.
The recent choppy trade for the soybeans continues as the overall tightness of the old crop works to keep the market alive. New crop soybeans work to stay alive as the trade awaits the planting intentions at the end of the month. Recent estimates are right around the 90 million acre mark. As I mentioned earlier is the bean oil market in the process of making a top? If it is watch to see if today’s lows get taken out. Is soybean meal trying to establish an interim low or is it just some correction in the meal/oil spread? $415.0 to $420.0 should act as a formidable hurdle for May meal.
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/17
May Beans : $14.10 – $14.30
May Meal: $400.0 – $410.0
May Bean Oil: $54.50 – $55.75 (?)
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