May Soybeans closed 5 ½ cents lower ($14.17 ¾), July 7 ¾ cents lower ($14.06) & Nov 9 ½ cents lower (12.35 ½)
May Soybean Meal closed $1.2 lower ($404.9), July $1.7 lower ($404.2) & Dec $0.4 lower ($373.4)
May Soybean Oil closed 49 pts lower ($54.60), July 50 pts lower ($52.85) & Dec 80 pts lower ($48.07)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Better progress is being made with the Brazilian soybean harvest. Argentina gets much needed rains that should at least stop the decline in conditions. It remains questionable if these recent rains will add bushels. Soybean oil appears to be going into a profitaking stage and that in turn is providing the meal market with some left-handed support. Weekly export sales are not expected to be much for soybeans. Meal export sales should be no worse than okay while bean oil export sales have not really been a factor in the rally as that has been all about palm oil and bio-diesel demand.
The interior Midwestern soybean basis is like night and day between the processor and the exporter. The processor continues to stand in while the exporter has been backing away. The Gulf basis acts like they really don’t need any soybeans in the near term. The “however” is bull spreads were working and that is reflective of the overall tightness in the soybean sector. Spreads in meal ran mixed; the nearby trying to firm while old crop loses to the new crop. Soybean oil spreads continue to be firm despite the correction in the flat price.
Old crop soybeans continue with their recent chop, chop trade. Watch last Friday’s lows in old crop soybeans as price activity below those levels will attract technical selling. Closes below $12.25 in November beans may also attract some technical selling. As I mentioned earlier it looks like soybean oil is moving into a correction phase and if true may offer some left-handed support to the soybean meal market.
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/18
May Beans : $13.95 – $14.30
May Meal: $400.0 – $410.0
May Bean Oil: $53.60 – $55.00
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