July Soybeans closed 8 ¼ cents lower ($15.03 ½), August 7 ½ cents lower ($14.53) & Nov ¼ cent lower ($13.47)
July Soybean Meal closed $2.5 lower ($383.8), August $1.8 lower ($384.6) & Dec $0.5 higher ($384.3)
July Soybean Oil closed 101 pts lower ($65.68), August 64 pts lower ($61.90) & Dec 37 pts lower ($57.99)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -200 +200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 225-600 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-75 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. -10 +25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
The soybean complex gets caught up in the mad rush of selling on today’s re-opening. July soybeans traded as much as 22-23 cents lower before bouncing 36 cents. November soybeans traded as much as 21-22 cents lower before bouncing 31 cents. The old crop contracts were not able to hold onto their gains as the story for old crop continues to slip away. New crop was able to find support at unchanged to slightly easier levels after the bounce. The product markets bounced with everyone else but gains there were difficult to sustain. The bottom line is that old crop has lost most of its rationale for higher prices while the unknown around the new crop will try to keep it alive. New crop’s story will be about the June acreage report and how the growing season develops. In the short term conditions look okay while longer term forecasts (leaning towards warm and dry) should provide some support.
The interior soybean basis still shows the processor with a defensive bias. River locations do some minor flip-flopping based on where beans may be needed but overall their basis levels are nothing to write home about. Gulf bids firm ever so slightly while offers ease. Old crop bull spreads continue to slip away while spreads within the new crop run fractionally mixed.
So – have we seen enough wham-bam selling for now. I would like to think so but I’m not sure we’re going anywhere in the near term. Based on technical reads soybeans and soybean meal have the best chances of trying to stabilize while soybean oil still shows plenty of room for additional liquidation. $14.90 is proving to be a bon fide jumping off point for July soybeans as it was flirted with today. $64.25 looks the jumping off point for July soybean oil bulls even though the worst close it has since the high was made is $65.13. July meal is in a support area that was made last December. I can’t imagine there are any longs left here.
Daily Support & Resistance – 05/27
July Soybeans: $14.95 (?) – $15.27
July Soybean Meal: $380.0 – $394.0
July Soy Oil: $64.00 – $66.50
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