Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 19 ¾ cents higher ($15.80), August 17 ¼ cents higher ($15.39 ½) & Nov 17 cents higher ($14.57)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.9 higher ($389.8), August $2.5 higher ($391.7) & Dec $3.6 higher ($395.1)

July Soybean Oil closed 125 pts higher ($72.08), August 113 pts higher ($69.30) & Dec 122 pts higher ($66.61)

Its all about the weather forecasts for the new crop as flat price stays firm. Soybean oil recovers from Monday’s sharp sell-off despite the softer global veg oil markets. The support for soybean oil continues to be from the domestic sector especially in the renewal fuel sector. Soybean meal manages to find support as it approaches the late May lows. Rallies here continue to be tough to maintain.

Cash markets (basis) stays soft. Index fund rolling continues in the July contract but appears to be slowing vs. wheat we’ve seen in recent days.

Not much is expected from the USDA on Thursday supply-demand update. Trade guesses have the old crop carryout increasing ever so slightly. Not much change is expected in the new crop data. The new crop carry-in will be adjusted in line with whatever changes we see in the old crop carryout. I’m not sure we’ll see much change in the new crop demand data. Weather considerations will continue to impact the new crop.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/09

Nov Beans: $14.40 – $14.80

Dec Meal: $390.0 – $405.0

Dec Soy Oil: $65.00 – ???

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