November Soybeans closed 8 ¾ cents higher ($12.82 ¾), Jan 9 cents higher ($12.91 ¾) & March 8 cents higher ($12.95 ¼)
October Soybean Meal closed unchanged ($337.9), Dec unchanged ($341.8) & Jan $0.1 higher ($344.5)
October Soybean Oil closed 107 pts higher ($56.39), Dec 106 pts higher ($56.35) & Jan 107 pts higher ($56.44)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 500 K – 1.100 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 25-175 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. -10 +10 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Soybean oil is once again the soy complex’s upside leader. Strong gains in the palm oil market coupled with a rebounding crude oil market were the primary influences. Like corn the bean oil market had a mid-morning hiccup with the latest EPA proposals. Dec bean oil went from 56.36 down to 54.36 and then rebounding back to the 56.40 level after realizing none of these proposals are anywhere close to being finalized. This and the idea of resuming Chinese buying had the soybean market following through on the gains seen Tuesday. China has been on holiday for the past couple of days and now that they have returned has the trade thinking more daily announced sales will be seen (none today). The soybean meal market seems destined for continued consolidation as it seems the only time it tries to rally is from inter-market spreading when the bean oil market is down. During bean oil’s mid-session downside hiccup meal tried to rally only to fade back to the unchanged level when bean oil came bouncing back.
Recent price action for the entire soy complex is trying to advertise prices for all have gone low enough for now. Just because the charts may be suggesting we’ve gone low enough for now doesn’t make a market bullish; just some short covering. Yes, its harvest time and supposedly we have a decent soybean crop out there. Demand has been just okay as Brazil still has plenty of crop leftover from this past season. Planting of their new crop is just getting under way in the south. The central and northern areas of their soybean areas would like to see additional moisture before planting in earnest. Supposedly there are forecasts for the end of September that suggest the currently dry areas will see the rainfall they need. Given the dryness that occurred at the beginning of last season it makes sense that for this year we maintain some premium here in case it happens again.
Daily Support & Resistance – 09/23
Nov Beans: $12.70 – $12.96
Dec Meal: $338.0 – $346.0
Dec Soy Oil: $54.90 – $57.90
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