Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 15 cents lower ($8.62), July 15 ¼ cents lower ($8.75 ½) & Nov 13 ½ cents lower ($8.96 ¼)

May Soybean Meal closed $1.5 lower ($301.0), July $1.5 lower ($304.5) & Dec $1.4 lower ($311.1)

May Soybean Oil closed 64 pts lower ($28.06), July 63 pts lower ($28.37) & Dec 61 pts lower ($29.11)

Soybeans move into low areas not seen since last September. Soybean meal moves into new low ground by fractions. Soybean oil takes a big hit as it realigns with the ugliness in the bean and meal markets. Trade talks with China will resume (face to face) next week. The trade has become worried that new sanctions may be imposed against China if they continue to buy Iranian oil after May 2nd. If this came to pass it sure would throw a monkey-wrench into the ongoing trade talks. The bottomline is that the window is rapidly closing on any potential old crop business.

The interior soybean basis runs steady (processor) to higher (river locations) mostly from slack movement as well as slack demand. The Gulf is off of its recent lows but still not too inspiring looking. Soybean spreads continue to show a wide bias. Not much happens with cash soybean meal offers; the interior is mostly steady while the export market shows some easiness. Meal spreads ran steady to fractionally easier on the day.

Given today’s activity in the soybean market I have to think the next stop for July soybeans is the July and Sept low; roughly $8.63-$8.64. Granted the soybean meal market did not get too excited when it made new lows by fractions it did not reject these lows; a $1.0 bounce is not considered rejections. Now that the bean oil market is on board with its own ugliness I’m not sure there is anything out there to stop the complex’s train wreck. We are going to have to get oversold and the spec is going to have to get too short before we can stage any kind of consolidation/retracement.

Daily Support & Resistance for 04/24

July Soybeans: $8.69 ($8.64) – $8.83

July Soybean Meal: $302.0 (?) – 306.5

July Soybean Oil: $28.00 (?) – $28.70

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.