January Soybeans closed 11 ¼ cents lower ($12.50 ¼), March 8 ¼ cents lower ($12.58 ¼) & May 8 ¼ cents higher ($12.65 ½)
December Soybean Meal closed $0.8 lower ($358.9), Jan $2.9 lower ($349.7) & March $1.6 lower ($349.3)
December Soybean Oil closed 75 pts lower ($57.04), Jan 76 pts lower ($57.10) & March 56 pts lower ($57.11)
USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 123 K T. to Unknown
Soybeans stumble from ideas that come January the US will be shut out of the global export market by Brazil. Most of the growing areas of Brazil are in decent shape. I say “most” as the southern areas, RGDS in particular, are dry. Its nothing like we saw last year at this time but it bears watching. Soybean oil is the weak sister of the products as it is not liking what it is hearing about bio-diesel mandates going forward. As of this writing it is still speculation but the price action is not too friendly looking as interim resistance was challenged early in the day and then turned south when the rumored mandates were released on the news wires. Soybean meal caught some left handed support from the bean oil but it was not enough to sway the recent bearish price action.
In the for what it is worth dept;
Thursday’s USDA us soybean carryout is expected to increase by 14 M bu. while the World carryout is expected to increase by 480 K T.
Soybean processors continue to show the best soybean basis out there. Locations involved with export are mixed. The Gulf’s midday posting is noticeably lower vs. last night. Soybean spreads saw January losing noticeably to March and old crop loses to the new crop. Offers to sell cash meal continue to retreat suggesting the domestic crush has caught up with demand. January meal loses noticeably to March.
So far nearby soybeans are just a trading affair. The forward look, however, is not too promising. I’ll play the trading range idea for now as prices are pretty much at the midpoint level. The tighter interim range is $12.75 to $12.25. The broader range is $12.00 to $13.00. January soybean meal has a ways to go before it realizes what I think is good technical support; something below the $340.0 level. The only way I know how to trade the soybean oil market is to fade the inter-day extremes as one never knows which outside influence will the trade look at. Today the bean oil traders ignored the firm palm oil and crude oil markets choosing to focus on what the EPA may say.
Daily Support & in Resistance – 12/08
Jan Beans: $12.38 – $12.65
Jan Meal: $345.0 – $354.5
Jan Soy Oil: $55.80 – $58.40
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