January Soybeans closed 3 ½ cents higher ($12.64 ½), March 3 ½ cents higher ($12.72 ¼) & May 2 ¾ cents higher ($12.78 ¾)
December Soybean Meal closed $3.2 higher ($368.8), Jan $2.5 higher ($359.7) & March $2.5 higher ($359.2)
December Soybean Oil closed 67 pts lower ($54.79), Jan 70 pts lower ($54.85) & March 72 pts lower ($54.91)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.637 M T. old crop vs. 1.000-1.700 M T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-75 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 202.5 K T. old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – 2.9 K T. new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 5.3 K T. old crop vs. 5-40 K T. expected – 0.1 K T. new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 280 K T. to Unknown (140 K T. old crop, 140 K T. new crop)
Highlights USDA Soybean S&D Report – US – left all domestic data unchanged – World – lowered total supply 2.53 M T., lowered usage 1.00 M T., lowered carryout 1.78 M T.
The US soybean carryout comes in unchanged vs. ideas of 14 M bu. increase. The World carryout comes in down 1.78 M T. vs. ideas of a 350 K T. increase. The initial reaction was two-sided before trying to move lower. That lower move only lasted 6-7 minutes and then prices rallied as much as 20 cents off of those interim lows.
Based on expectations the soybean report is deemed price friendly. Soybean oil is still liquidating following the EPA bio-diesel mandate. The sell-off in bean oil is propping up the meal price through the inter-market spread liquidation (long bean oil vs. short meal).
The majority of Brazil is good shape. The south-southeastern reaches need moisture. There is some in the forecast this weekend and into Tuesday.
My thought is that soybeans are a trading range affair for now as we judge disappearance and the weather areas of concern in Brazil. I would like to think January soybean are no better, no worse than a trading range affair. Short term resistance is $12.75 followed by something closer to $13.00. the downside shows $12.25 as interim support followed by something closer to $12.00. January soybean meal should experience technical difficulties as it gets into the mid-low $360.0’s. January soybean oil so far is finding support at $54.00. Failure there suggests $52.00. As I mentioned yesterday the EPA bio-diesel mandate just may have sounded the death knell for soybean oil.
Daily Support & in Resistance – 12/10
Jan Beans: $12.50 – $12.80
Jan Meal: $354.0 – $365.0
Jan Soy Oil: $54.00 (?) – $56.50
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