January Soybeans closed 23 ¾ cents lower ($12.44), March 23 ½ cents lower ($12.50 ¾) & May 22 ½ cents lower ($12.59 ¼)
December Soybean Meal closed $6.1 higher ($384.0), Jan $4.7 lower ($362.1) & March $5.4 lower ($360.5)
December Soybean Oil closed 35 pts lower ($53.24), Jan 34 pts lower ($53.35) & March 38 pts lower ($53.38)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.723 M T. vs. 1.900-2.300 M T. expected
Weekly soybean export inspections missed the low side of expectations. A good portion of Brazil is reporting excellent crop developing weather. There remains concerns about the south-southeastern reaches of Brazil as it has been abnormally dry. The “however” is that scattered rains are forecast for this area as well as some of the dryer parts of Argentina this week.
I’m not seeing much change with the interior basis levels vs. Friday’s postings. River locations involved with export have the poorest looking basis levels while the processor has the best looking basis levels. The gulf edges higher at its midday posting vs. Friday afternoon’ posting. I can’t help but notice that after the January time slot the Gulf basis falls out of bed. This is consistent with the idea that by late January Brazil will take over as the big supplier of soybeans. Soybean spreads ran softer all the way out to the new crop. Interior offers to sell cash meal continue to soften while export offers stand tall. Meal spreads have a bullish bias led by what appears to be a finishing squeeze for the December contract that expires tomorrow.
The January soybean chart is not going to look too healthy if we close below the $12.38 level; last week’s low. January soybean oil is now at levels not seen since last June. It does seem that last week’s announcement from the EPA put a dagger into this market. $52.00-$51.50 is the next levels of support. Soybean meal looked like a real champ on Friday. Unfortunately today saw zero upside follow through. The NOPA November crush will be out on Wednesday. I’ll be looking for confirmations of strong crush data given recent margins.
Daily Support & in Resistance – 12/14
Jan Beans: $12.35 – $12.59
Jan Meal: $359.0 – $367.0
Jan Soy Oil: $52.50 (?) – $54.60
The risk of trading and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.