January Soybeans closed 15 ½ cents higher ($12.59 ½), March 13 ¾ cents higher ($12.64 ½) & May 13 ½ cents higher ($12.72 ¾)
December Soybean Meal expired $20.5 higher ($404.5), Jan closed $14.8 higher ($376.9) & March $13.3 higher ($373.8)
December Soybean Oil expired 123 pts lower ($52.01), Jan closed 111 pts lower ($52.24) & March 106 pts lower ($52.32)
Soybeans get a good chunk of Monday’s losses back on Tuesday. Soybeans catch a strong bid from two different sources; fears of a developing “La Nina” in south-southeastern Brazil and parts of Argentina as well as a noticeably strong soybean meal market. I’m being told that the recent rains in the drier areas of Brazil and Argentina may be it for a while after this week. Soybean meal rallies sharply on the coattails of a continued weak soybean oil market. Soybean oil continues to liquidate prompting the selling of the “oil share” which in turn elevates the price of soybean meal. Liquidation in bean oil stems from the recent EPA announcement laying out a disappointing bio-diesel blending mandate for 2022.
Interior river locations that are involved with export have mostly strong readings today. The midday posting at the Gulf is at its strongest of the season. Processor basis levels continue to stand tall. Soybean spreads were firm up front then flattened out May forward. Old crop held a slight advantage over the new crop (July/Nov). The interior meal basis shows rail offers steady but with a weak tone while truck offers ran steady with a slightly better tone. The export basis is steady yet with a firm bias. Meal spreads are showing a definite bullish bias and the December contract expires with a bang. It will be interesting to see how the NOPA crush comes in tomorrow. Given recent margins one would think they will show a strong rate of crush.
January meal comes within $1.2 of filling its 4th of July weekend gap lower. March meal fills its 4th of July gap by $0.3. The January meal charts suggests $390.0 is probably high enough while the March chart suggests $380.0. Then again its all about the inter-market spreads that is pushing the flat price higher. Like corn January soybeans remain in a range bound trade. Weather fears out of SA is a primary supporting issue as is the upfront export strength. As of this writing the export market is suggesting its current strength will not last beyond last half January, February. So; has bean oil run its course of liquidation? $51.00 to $50.00 is the next level of support. A weekly bean oil chart suggests $50.00 for now.
Daily Support & in Resistance – 12/15
Jan Beans: $12.45 – $12.75
Jan Meal: $370.0 – $387.0
Jan Soy Oil: $51.20 – $53.50
The risk of trading and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.