Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 6 ¼ cents lower ($8.41 ¼), July 6 ¾ cents lower ($8.54) & Nov 6 cents lower ($8.74 ¾)

May Soybean Meal closed $1.2 lower ($296.0), July $0.8 lower ($300.1) & Dec $0.2 lower ($306.7)

May Soybean Oil closed 30 pts lower ($27.58), July 31 pts lower ($27.88) & Dec 31 pts lower ($28.61)

1st Notice Day Soybean Deliveries – 453

1st Notice Day Soybean Meal Deliveries – 300

1st Notice Day Soybean Oil Deliveries – 703

It continues to be an ugly soybean complex trade. Too much old crop supply. Extended delays in corn planting may get us more soybean acres. It remains doubtful that a Chinese trade accord will get us any substantial old crop business. The other side of that coin is the belief that we will finally get a trade accord with them by the end of this month. If true and one couples the current oversold condition of the market it suggests limited downside from current levels.

The interior soybean basis continues to show a steady to firm bias from slow movement. It’s the processor that shows the best bid structure as Board crush margins continue to improve. The export market continues to strengthen from wet weather related logistical problems. The “however” is that the July forward spreads continue to show current bearish bias. Offers to sell cash soybean meal remain nothing to write home about. Meal spreads appear to be breaking down from recent attempts to improve.

Can the new contract lows in soybeans and soybean meal be offset by the modest degree of oversold? The 14-day RSI for July soybeans is 23. I can’t sell current levels but the price action remains lacking with the idea the downside may be running out of steam. The specs continue to add to existing short positions; not including today another 16 K shorts since last Tuesday. I’m starting to get the idea that if and when this market turns there will be no advance warning. So how does one trade in anticipation of that – buy it and if it closes against you get out!

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/01

July Soybeans: ??? – $8.65

July Soybean Meal: ??? – 305.0

July Soybean Oil: $27.60 – $28.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.