January Soybeans closed 20 ¾ cents higher ($13.28 ¾), March 22 ¼ cents higher ($13.35) & July 21 ¼ cents higher ($13.45 ¼)
January Soybean Meal closed $8.8 higher ($402.8), March $7.8 higher ($398.3) & July $7.1 higher ($396.6)
January Soybean Oil closed 93 pts higher ($54.83), March 90 pts higher ($54.84) & July 86 pts higher ($54.81)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.700 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-75 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
The soybean complex is all about the weather in southern Brazil and parts of Argentina (dryness). Scattered showers will occur from time to time such as it happened overnight but these scattered events are not enough to sway the current spate of dryness. Forecasts continue to suggest the dry bias will continue. North of these areas the crop is in in fine shape. So; how much yield is Brazil losing? CONAB will be out sometime within the first two weeks of January and hopefully answer that question. The rally in soybean meal is all about the weather in S. America as well as spread support from the buying of meal vs. selling soybean oil. Soybean oil gets additional help from stronger energy prices as well as stronger palm prices. Recent flooding in Malaysia is causing some speculation that it will halt supply coming to the market. India’s lowering of its palm oil import tax adds to the mix.
The interior river soybean basis runs steady to easier while the processor is mostly steady. The midday post at the Gulf shows improvement from recent easing. The early new crop soybeans should be coming out Brazil any day now. That and the soon 1st Notice Day has January soybeans easing on its spread vs. the March/May/July. The prospect of better export due to the potential yield loss from southern Brazil is also helping the March/May/July. Old crop soybeans continue to be noticeable gainers vs. the new crop. The July/Nov spread has been an almost mirror of the old crop rally.
As long as we have the weather in play for SA the soybean bias will remain higher. This will remain true for soybean meal as well even if I think $400.0 T meal is a bit overdone. Soybean oil will play second fiddle to the meal and soybeans as the EPA announcement a couple of weeks ago took the wind out of this market’s sails. As I mentioned in the corn comment we have a three day weekend coming at us and the soybean market has seen a nice run higher over the past 5 days. A round of profit taking off of any further strength tomorrow would not be surprising. Weekend weather in S. Brazil will be the market maker Sunday night.
Daily Support & in Resistance – 12/23
March Beans: $13.20 – $13.50
March Meal: $390.0 – $405.0.0
March Soy Oil: $53.75 – $55.30
The risk of trading and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.