January Soybeans closed 30 ½ cents higher ($13.62 ½), March 30 ¾ cents higher ($13.71 ½) & July 29 ¾ cents higher ($13.81 ¾)
January Soybean Meal closed $8.7 higher ($414.8), March $7.8 higher ($408.3) & July $5.5 higher ($403.7)
January Soybean Oil closed 128 pts higher ($56.72), March 143 pts higher ($56.85) & July 153 pts higher ($56.81)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.577 M T. vs. 1.000-1.800 M T. expected
It’s all about the dry weather in S. Brazil and Argentina. Forecasts do suggest scattered moisture is the best we are going to see for S. Brazil. Argentina has forecasts calling for some moisture for its northern reaches while its southern areas will maintain a dry bias. Weekly soybean export inspections were deemed solid. In the early going soybean meal was the product leader as bean oil was running into some head winds from a declining palm oil market. By mid-session bean oil came storming back on the heels of an improving crude oil market. It does need to be mentioned that March meal made new contract highs and contract high closes today.
The interior soybean basis has a mixed look to it. River locations are mixed; 3 locations a bit better, one easier and one steady. Processors run steady to a shade easier. The midday post at the Gulf shows unchanged strength with last Thursday. Upfront soybean spreads ran fractionally mixed while old crop continues to gain noticeably on the new crop. The interior meal has a softening look while the export market runs fully steady. Meal spreads continue to show a bullish bias.
Its all about the current weather and the forecasts for S. Brazil and Argentina. Both soybeans and soybean meal have seen a notable run in the past two weeks. With this week being year end it would not surprise me to see some consolidation if not correction over the next remaining days of the week. For what it is worth; the weekly soybean chart has a breakdown gap at $13.94 ¾ that was created in 2nd week of this past August. I’m not sure I would want to pursue nearby soybeans beyond this level. Additionally; it looks like the meal/oil spread has run its course for now. If true expect to see bean oil regain market share within the crush.
Daily Support & in Resistance – 12/28
March Beans: $13.50 – $13.81 ($14.00)
March Meal: $400.0 – $412.0 (?)
March Soy Oil: $55.75 – $58.00
The risk of trading and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.