January Soybeans closed 28 ¾ cents lower ($13.27 ¾), March 30 ¼ cents lower ($13.38 ½) & July 28 ½ cents lower ($13.53 ½)
January Soybean Meal closed $1.8 lower ($413.6), March $4.5 lower ($403.7) & July $4.7 lower ($399.4)
January Soybean Oil closed 85 pts lower ($55.85), March 83 pts lower ($56.08) & July 87 pts lower ($56.06)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 524.1 K T. old crop vs. 700 K – 1.200 M T. expected – 75.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-40 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 69.4 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – 0.3 K T. new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 9.3 K T. old crop vs. 10-30 K T. expected – 0.2 K T. new crop vs. none expected
Lousy weekly export sales coupled with some weather relief for the dry areas of SA doomed the soybean market today. Over night there was some rain in the dry Brazilian state of Parana and southwestern Argentina. Forecasts suggest some further moisture relief for RGDS in Brazil and northern Argentina in the coming days.
The interior soybean basis appears easier at selected river locations while processors hold firm. The Gulf basis eased a bit at midday but it’s still a strong bid. I can’t help but notice the inversion at the Gulf; the spot bid is $1.10 over the Jan, for January 82 cents over the Jan and for February 70 cents over the March. January soybean deliveries are anyone’s guess as the sharp premium at the Gulf is not expected to last. The March forward soybean spreads were under the gun most notable the old crop/new crop. The cash meal markets’ offers remain firm especially at the Gulf. Don’t hold your breath for any meal deliveries. With the exception of the January contract meal spreads showed a widening bias reflecting the flat price selling.
Tomorrow is Friday, the last day of the year. If anything needed to be done it has probably already happened. The past few days we’ve taken 50 cents out of the March beans (high to low). SA weather considerations gave us a good portion of the recent rally and now some minor relief is being seen/forecasted. We could see some further easing tomorrow if forecasts for SA hold true overnight.
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/31
March Beans: $13.25 – $13.48
March Meal: $400.0 – $410.0
March Soy Oil: $55.00 – $56.80
The risk of trading and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.