January Soybeans closed 34 ¾ cents higher ($13.78 ¾), March 34 ¼ cents higher ($13.89 ¾) & July 30 ½ cents higher ($14.01 ¾)
January Soybean Meal closed $3.7 higher ($427.6), March $3.4 higher ($414.7) & July $4.4 higher ($412.1)
January Soybean Oil closed 193 pts higher ($58.14), March 191 pts higher ($58.33) & July 181 pts higher ($58.24)
It looks like near term forecasts for the dry areas of concern in Brazil and Argentina have turned dryer vs. what was being suggested yesterday. Add the notion that the Brazilian soybean crop may be cut by 7.6% (as suggested by a prominent FCM yesterday) had prices rocketing higher today. Soybean oil was the product leader on the upside as it was getting help from sharply higher palm oil (Malaysian flooding) and higher crude oil. The USDA November crush coming in lower than expected had bean oil firming out of the box Monday night. It seemed soybean meal just went along for the ride considering the sharp rally it had yesterday.
Most interior soybean basis levels run steady. Locations that have softened in recent days appear to be firming back up. The gulf basis for the spot slot is now jumping. It has not gone up to the level the December Gulf basis was but it is improving. Soybean spreads had a definite bullish bias especially old crop vs. the new crop. The interior meal basis continues to trade erratically especially the truck market. If it is softening one day the next day it’s firming back up. The export market for meal continues to be firm. Meal spreads ran mixed upfront while the old crop leaves the new crop in the dust.
SA forecasts rule! If March beans can get through the $14.00 level with any conviction the next stop will be $14.15-$14.20. After that it’s the $14.45 ½ contract high. For as doggy as the meal acted when compared to what was happening in the bean oil and soybean markets its easy to ignore the new contract high and new contract high close. For as much as I was a disbeliever with bean oil yesterday after today it looks like something closer to $60.00 is the next destination on the top side.
Daily & Resistance – 01/05
March Beans: $13.70 – $14.02 (?)
March Meal: $408.0 – ???
March Soy Oil: $57.50 – $59.90
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