January Soybeans closed 14 ½ cents higher ($13.91 ¼), March 12 ¾ cents higher ($13.99 ¼) & July 12 ¾ cents higher ($14.13 ¾)
January Soybean Meal closed $3.7 higher ($431.0), March $3.1 higher ($416.2) & July $3.7 higher ($413.7)
January Soybean Oil closed 39 pts higher ($59.28), March 50 pts higher ($59.37) & July 48 pts higher ($59.44)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs.400 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-450 K t. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 10-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-15 K t. expected
USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 132 K T. new crop (2022/23) sold to China
Dec 1st Quarterly Soybean Stocks – 3.149 B bu. vs. 3.129 B bu. Expected
Highlights of January Supply/Demand Soybean Report – US – increased carryin by 1 M bu., increased harvested acres by 200 K, increased production by 10 M bu., left crush and exports unchanged, increased carryout by 10 M bu. – S-T-U 8.03% vs. 7.80% last month vs. 5.70% year ago – World – increased carryin by 70 K T., lowered production by 9.22 M T., lowered usage by 2.1 M T., lowered carryout by 6.8 M T.
The USDA’s domestic data for soybeans was a bit negative looking based on expectations while the World data was out right bullish based on expectations. Once again, the old adage of having your orders waiting vs. waiting to see and then react holds true. The soybean market initially collapsed after today’s numbers were released only to come snapping back almost as fast as they broke. It’s all about the weather forecasts for southern Brail and Argentina. Currently they are seeing some major league heat but forecasts just the heat and dryness will break this weekend, early next week, with cooler temps and beneficial rainfall. The question remains is the rain and cooler temps to little too late? Will the crop in central and northern Brazil be able to offset the losses in southern Brazil? Even with the cuts to production Brazil is still looking at a very sizable crop; just not as big as originally planned. For what it is worth the US crop is a record size in case anyone was wondering. I’m beginning to think we do have enough soybeans to go around just not having the excess everyone was thinking about earlier this season.
The interior soybean basis sees a noticeable improvement along the Ohio river while unchanged elsewhere. Spot premiums at the gulf continue to improve similar to levels we saw in December. Soybean spreads ran mostly unchanged out to the new crop. Interior soybean meal cash offers run steady to a shade easier. The gulf basis reads a bit easier as well. I could help notice that the FOB markets, March forward, are noticeably stronger. This suggests to me that given the weather and logistical problems that Argentina is having the US just may be looking at better business in those springtime slots. March meal lost to its forward contracts but after that meal spreads were a mixed affair.
I get the idea the soybean market/complex is not going to sustain a sell-off until the trade sees how the weekend forecasted weather for SA materializes. This coming weekend is a 3-day’r due to the MLK Jr. holiday. Big things tend to happen after 3-day weekends when we are amid a weather play. This Monday night will be no different. For what it is worth today’s low should be viewed as a new jumping off point for recent longs.
March Beans: $13.85 – $14.15 (?)
March Meal: $411.0 – $422.0
March Soy Oil: $58.50 – $60.15 (?)
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