Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 26 ¼ cents higher ($8.56), August 26 ¼ cents higher ($8.62 ¾) & Nov 26 ¼ cents higher ($8.82 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $12.3 higher ($312.8), August $12.0 higher ($313.9) & Dec $11.5 higher ($320.0)

July Soybean Oil closed 28 pts higher ($27.29), August 27 pts higher ($27.41) & Dec 27 pts higher ($27.99)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 532.8 K T. vs. 450-650 K T. expected – Cumulative 33.698 M T. vs. 48.31 M T. USDA target

Weekly Soybean Crop Progress – Planted – 29% vs. 31% expected vs. 66% 5-year average – Emerged – 11% vs. 35% 5-year average

Soybeans go along for the ride with its own spec/fund short covering. So far there is only minor concern for getting soybeans planted. I have to think the soybean meal market was mostly responsible for the soybean rally. If we do have a noticeably short corn crop this season domestic meal demand should improve. Soybean oil continues to dog it as any supply scare rally is led by soybean meal. I think that we saw a tremendous amount of technically inspired buying with the gap higher Monday night as well as many of your shorter term moving averages falling by the wayside. Immediate downtrend lines have also been violated especially in the meal market.

The story with the interior cash soybean is almost similar to that of corn. Locations that can bypass the snarl at St. Louis are pushing their bids higher. Locations that are stuck because of these river logistics run steady to easier. Processor bids are fully steady as crush margins remain stout looking. The Gulf is strong due to the aforementioned river problems. Soybean spreads ran mostly steady out to January. Offers to sell cash meal run unchanged; both domestically and for export. Meal spreads had a bit of bullish bias due to the spec/fund short covering.

If one looks at a July soybean daily chart you will see a smattering of resistance at the $8.70 level with much better looking resistance closer to the $9.00 level. Today’s gap and go from last week’s downflagging effort makes the July soybean chart rather powerful looking (just my opinion). November soybeans have similar looking chart pattern. Soybean meal has already rallied into resistance levels that were created as recently as last month. July meal closed right on its major downtrend line that has been in effect dating back to April of 2018. As I mentioned earlier bean oil continues to be the dog of the complex. If bean oil can take out last week’s high of 27.80 I have to think $29.00 comes next.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/29

July Soybeans: $8.40 – $8.70

July Soybean Meal: $305.0 – $320.0

July Soybean Oil: $27.00 – $27.80

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