Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 16 cents higher ($8.72), August 15 ¾ cents higher ($8.78 ½) & Nov 16 cents higher ($8.98 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $6.2 higher ($319.0), August $6.2 higher ($320.1) & Dec $6.2 higher ($326.2)

July Soybean Oil closed 44 pts higher ($27.73), August 43 pts higher ($27.84) & Dec 39 pts higher ($28.38)

Lower than expected planting rates (60 million soybean acres yet to be planted), continued spec/fund short covering and the unwinding of inter-market spreads involving short soybeans was today’s strength. The early rally had July beans challenging the $9.00 level; a level we broke down from earlier this spring. November beans have similar picture; challenging the $9.20 level; a level we broker down from earlier this spring. Profit taking prompted from the feed grain sector trimmed 20 cents off of the early rally. Despite what looks like a big number of acres yet to be planted if forecasts run true the majority of these acres can be planted in an almost timely manner. Only Mother Nature has the real answer and she won’t tell us.

The Ohio River trims its soybean basis by 3 cents, Decatur, In improves by 3 cents, Toledo improves by 7 cents and Savanna, IL eases 4 cents. The Gulf eases from last night’s strength. Soybean spreads ran steady out to November and then gains on January forward. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior are fully steady while the Gulf appears to be a firmer. Meal spreads ran steady out to December than firm vs. January forward.

Given the rally of the past 2 ½ days and what transpired today it looks like both soybeans and soybean meal are ready for some consolidation/backing and filling. Given the run soybean meal has had over soybean oil I’m ready to see bean oil be a bit better performer. This would go along with the idea of beans and meal going into a correction phase. Weather will hold sway over the soybean market for the majority of the month of June.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/30

July Soybeans: $8.55 – $8.82

July Soybean Meal: $313.0 ($309.0) – $323.0

July Soybean Oil: $27.30 – $28.05

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.